El Niño: Assessing Risks and Shaping Strategic Responses

Introduction

A major environmental challenge that may emerge in the coming year is the potential development of a ‘Super El Niño,’ an exceptionally strong climate event capable of significantly altering global weather patterns across different regions within a relatively short period. El Niño originates from major disruptions in the normal circulation and temperature patterns of the Pacific Ocean, which can influence atmospheric conditions far beyond the Pacific region.

According to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño is now 'firmly established' and is expected to intensify into a very strong event in the coming months that’s why the name Super El Niño. A strong El Niño can cause significant changes in rainfall and temperature patterns, increasing the risks of floods, droughts, extreme heat, and other weather-related hazards in different parts of the world.

The WMO on September 3 stated that the current El Niño is expected to intensify and reach its peak toward the end of 2026. The organization has also indicated almost cent percent probability that El Niño conditions will persist through February 2027. These projections highlight urgency for improved preparedness and resilient water-management strategies to address potential changes in rainfall patterns and water availability.

In Asia, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives ocean-atmosphere circulations. During the ENSO phases, the correlations between SOI (South Oscillation Index) and precipitation in monsoon seasons are strong in India and South Asia. El Niño, which is influenced by increased Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, is linked to lower-than-average monsoon precipitation in South Asia. As per the study, there is strong Correlation between SOI and Summer Precipitation.

When El Niño develops, the monsoon generally weakens and rainfall tends to dwindle. In the context of Nepal, Moisture-laden air from the Bay of Bengal, however, will still remain in the atmosphere during the monsoon period. Even if rainfall is below normal overall, localised high-intensity rainfall events can still occur.

Possible Impacts

Since Nepal is a South Asian Country, the probable adverse effect in the country should not be undermined. This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response. El Niño does not simply mean 'less rain in Nepal.' But it may increase rainfall variability and create a combination of drought conditions and localized extreme rainfall/flood events.

Moreover, as Nepal is predominantly an agricultural country, food production depends heavily on rainfall and irrigation. Any significant impact of El Niño directed towards drought could increase the reliance on electricity-powered irrigation systems. Amid soaring electricity demand across the nation driven by increasing use of modern comfort accessories and adverse impacts of the climate change, maintaining a reliable power supply under aging infrastructure is increasingly challenging.

Although El Niño is generally associated with reduced monsoon rainfall in South Asia, it does not eliminate the possibility of localized extreme rainfall and flooding. The catastrophic flash flood of August 26, 2026 affected 11 hydropower projects and one solar project resulting in disconnection of approximately 431.1 MW of generation from the national grid along with severely damaging major transmission infrastructure including the Trishuli-3B 220 kV Hub Substation. These demonstrate the vulnerability of Nepal’s electricity infrastructure to extreme weather events. Therefore, preparedness remains equally essential on the part of the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA), the strategy of which must address both flood-induced damage to power infrastructure and probable drought-driven growth in electricity demand.

Hence, it calls for proactive preparedness and risk mitigation measures to minimize further damage and ensure a reliable and uninterrupted electricity supply during the summer season.

Flood Risks

Ensuring a reliable electricity supply to farmers will be crucial for maintaining adequate irrigation, sustaining agricultural production, and safeguarding food security. As per the Statistical Information of Nepalese Agriculture 2081/82, Madhesh Province is the top producer of Paddy and Wheat, while is counted as second major production hub for cereal crops across the country. Water is the lifeline for the production of these cereal crops.

NEA should adopt a decentralized and demand-oriented irrigation electrification strategy rather than extending grid infrastructure to individual agricultural plots. Under anticipated El Niño-induced rainfall deficits, priority should be given to strategically located community irrigation pumping stations, deep-tube well systems and solar-powered irrigation in areas where grid extension is economically or socially impractical. In addition, targeted reinforcement of existing feeders and distribution transformers in agricultural load pockets are equally important.

GIS-based identification of rainfall-vulnerable agricultural areas, status of irrigation facilities, land suitable for surface irrigation and ground water potential can be estimated as the quotient of the potential average borehole yield and the total crop water requirement (CWR), and available network capacity can support the prioritization of such interventions.

There should be good collaboration among several governmental as well as non-governmental bodies to put forth the combined efforts. Some of the measures are discussed as:

Short-Term Planning

NEA Controlled Actions:

i) Upgrading of Power Transformers as well as Distribution Transformers.

ii) Identifying the feeder with the maximum loading by each of the distribution centres, as the maintenance and conductor upgrading shall be done accordingly.

iii) Emergency Preparedness

DHM Action

i) At a time when Nepal's Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) has already begun providing hydrological/meteorological forecasts and flood early-warning services, prompt evacuation is essential. A proactive approach to flood management can help prevent disasters, while a 'wait-and-watch' approach could lead to significant casualties and heavy economic losses.

Long Term Planning

i) Artificial Recharge of Groundwater: Artificial recharge aims to increase the natural replenishment of groundwater using methods such as constructing recharge structures, spreading water over suitable areas, or modifying natural conditions to facilitate infiltration. It helps reduce excessive groundwater extraction, conserve surface runoff, and increase the availability of groundwater for future use.

ii) Encouragement of Solar Water Pumps: The Investment Board Nepal (IBN) issued its ‘Energy’ report in April 2024 which states that Nepal receives sufficient solar radiation to produce between 3.6 and 6.2 units of electricity per square meter area. The hydropower stands as a more economically efficient option for big projects across the country. However, in areas, where the cost of electrification is significantly high, NEA should work in collaboration with organizations like Alternative Energy Promotion Centre (AEPC) to ensure effective and cost-efficient electrification via renewable energy sources.

iii) Use of Plastic Ponds: Plastic-lined dugout ponds are designed to collect surface runoff and household greywater for crop irrigation during dry spells. This concept can be used in the areas where the irrigable land is small.

iv) Collaboration with the Department of Water Resources and Irrigation: As per the Irrigation Activities Report 2082/83, the government has planned to provide a reliable water supply to farmers through the Mechanized Irrigation Innovation Project (MIIP), with an allocated budget of approximately NPR 19 billion. The project focuses on two districts of Madhesh Province and aims to establish 500 deep tubewells. The construction of deep tubewells should be prioritized by correctly identifying and mapping the Groundwater Potential Zones (GWPZ) as per the aquifer potential.

The infrastructure developed for these deep tubewells can not only benefit farmers by ensuring reliable irrigation facilities but also provide an opportunity for NEA to utilize the associated infrastructure for extending and improving reliable electricity supply to consumers. Such collaboration between the Department of Water Resources and Irrigation and NEA can help optimize infrastructure, reduce duplication of investment, and improve service delivery in the targeted areas.

V) Identifying Preferred Areas for Infrastructure Construction: The recent massive flood, which caused extensive damage to electrical infrastructure, demonstrates that no single engineering intervention can completely protect critical infrastructure from extreme flood and debris-flow events. Therefore, greater emphasis should be placed on appropriate site and corridor selection before construction. GIS-based hazard and risk mapping should be used to identify safer locations and alignments by considering factors such as river and tributary networks, elevation, historical flood extent, flood depth and velocity, landslide susceptibility, debris-flow pathways, glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard zones, and river-bank erosion. These factors should be systematically assessed before selecting sites for substations and transmission corridors to minimize exposure to extreme natural hazards and enhance the long-term resilience of the electricity infrastructure.

The challenge is not limited to the potential impacts of a Super El Niño event; the continued rise in global temperatures is an equally significant and long-term concern. According to the UNEP 2026 Report, the world is expected to miss the 1.5°C warming target, and UNEP has urged countries to prepare for a warmer future. Even under the most optimistic pathway, global warming is projected to peak at around 1.8°C, while other scenarios could result in warming exceeding 2°C.

What lies ahead is undoubtedly alarming. However, while climate change cannot be completely avoided, its impacts can be anticipated, reduced, and better managed through proactive and strategic planning. Rather than responding only after disasters occur, it is essential to strengthen infrastructure resilience, improve risk assessment and early-warning systems, adopt climate-informed infrastructure planning, and coordinate efforts across relevant sectors. Strategic planning today is therefore essential to minimize the risks and consequences of tomorrow.

Ms Jha is an electrical engineer working at the Nepal Electricity Authority’s Kanchanpur Distribution Center (Saptari).

References

1.    The Rising Nepal. (2026, September 7). El Niño may weaken monsoon, but disaster risks do remain. The Rising Nepal.

2.    Bagale, D., Aryal, D., & Sigdel, M. Seasonal precipitation variability and its relationship with Southern Oscillation Index in the recent four decades in Nepal.

3.    A Case Study on Climate-Friendly Technologies and Practices from Madhesh Province, Nepal.

4.    Department of Water Resources and Irrigation (DWRI). Report on Irrigation Activities for FY 2082/83.

5.    “Limiting Overshoot:Navigating Exceedance of 1.5 °C and pathway towards return”, UNEP(2026)